Russia and Ukraine are set for discussions in Turkey on Thursday, even though the hopes of President Vladimir Putin and his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy meeting face-to-face for the first time in three years were dashed by the Kremlin late on Wednesday.
United States President Donald Trump, who had previously suggested he might join the talks, will also not be present, according to American officials.
Here’s what we know about the talks, why they are happening, who is expected to attend, and why they are important:
Why are the talks being held?
On Sunday, Putin proposed the idea of direct negotiations between Russia and Ukraine in Turkey, instead of the indirect talks mediated by the US and others. Putin referred to previous direct talks in 2022 while advocating for their resumption.
“It was not Russia that ended negotiations in 2022. It was Kyiv. Nonetheless, we are suggesting that Kyiv resume direct negotiations without any conditions,” Putin stated on Sunday.
In February 2022, Russia initiated a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Shortly after, Russia and Ukraine held talks in Istanbul, Turkey.
According to Zelenskyy, the talks fell apart because Russia demanded that Ukraine relinquish the Donbas region, which includes Ukraine’s Donetsk and Luhansk regions – areas Russia occupied during its invasion. Zelenskyy added that Russia wanted Ukraine to give up long-range weapons, make constitutional amendments to declare neutrality, and significantly reduce its armed forces. “There were no negotiations; it was an ultimatum from a killer,” Zelenskyy remarked at the time.
While Zelenskyy had previously stated that any peace deal would require Russia to return Ukrainian territory it seized, in December last year, Zelenskyy mentioned that the “hot phase” of the war could end if NATO offered security guarantees for the part of Ukraine currently under Kyiv’s control.
He also suggested that the return of occupied land by Russia could be negotiated diplomatically later.
“The pressure exerted by the US to end the fighting in Ukraine has evolved over time,” Keir Giles, a senior consulting fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank, told Al Jazeera. “It seems that recent developments in that evolution, particularly in terms of European solidarity with Ukraine, have prompted Russia to engage in direct talks.”
Putin’s recent push for talks came after Ukraine’s four major European allies issued an ultimatum to Putin to accept an unconditional 30-day ceasefire or face renewed sanctions. This ultimatum followed a visit by the leaders of France, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Poland to Kyiv.
They gave Putin until May 12. On Sunday, May 11, Putin – without committing to a ceasefire – stated: “We are committed to serious negotiations with Ukraine. Their aim is to address the root causes of the conflict and establish a long-term, sustainable peace for the future.”
When and where are they being held?
The talks are scheduled to commence around 10am local time (07:00 GMT), according to Russia’s TASS news agency. They are taking place behind closed doors at Dolmabahce Palace in Istanbul, Turkey, which straddles the boundary between Asia and Europe.
The palace, situated on the Bosphorus Strait, served as the primary administrative complex of the Ottoman Empire for most of the period between the mid-19th century and 1922.
What role did Trump play in this?
The four European leaders – Keir Starmer of Britain, Emmanuel Macron of France, Friedrich Merz of Germany, and Donald Tusk of Poland – stated that they had briefed Trump about their ultimatum to Russia during a phone call and indicated that he was in agreement.
However, after Putin called for direct talks between Kyiv and Moscow, Trump released a statement on his Truth Social platform urging Ukraine to meet with Russia “immediately.”
Trump campaigned for the 2024 election promising to swiftly end the war in Ukraine. The Trump administration held several meetings, starting in February, with Russian and Ukrainian representatives separately in Saudi Arabia in efforts to broker a deal.
Additionally, in April, the Trump administration signaled that it was stepping back from providing security assurances to Ukraine. They stated that they wanted Europe to take the lead in supporting Ukraine’s defense, noting that the US had other priorities, including border security.
However, in recent weeks, Trump and his team, including Secretary of State Marco Rubio, expressed increasing frustration at the lack of significant progress in negotiations and threatened to withdraw from peace mediation efforts.
Explaining his insistence on Ukraine participating in the May 15 Istanbul talks, Trump argued: “At least they will be able to determine whether or not a deal is possible, and if it is not, European leaders, and the US, will know where everything stands, and can proceed accordingly!”
Who will be there?
“I supported President Trump with the idea of direct talks with Putin. I have openly expressed my readiness to meet. I will be in Turkey. I hope that the Russians will not avoid the meeting,” Zelenskyy wrote in a post on Monday.
On Tuesday, Zelenskyy announced that he will be in Ankara on Thursday, where he will meet with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The talks with Russia, however, are expected to take place in Istanbul subsequently.
Trump stated that he would send Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff, and Special Envoy for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg to attend the talks in Istanbul.
Russia announced its team for the meeting on Wednesday night. Vladimir Medinsky, a close aide to Putin and former culture minister who led previous rounds of unsuccessful talks with Ukraine in 2022, will lead Moscow’s team. He will be accompanied by Deputy Defence Minister Alexander Fomin and the director of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Igor Kostyukov.
Ukraine had welcomed Trump’s earlier offer to attend the talks himself. “All of us in Ukraine would appreciate it if President Trump could be there with us at this meeting in Turkey. This is the right idea.
Kita bisa mengubah banyak hal,” kata Zelenskyy.
Namun, pada Rabu malam, pejabat AS mengklarifikasi bahwa Trump tidak akan hadir.
Presiden AS saat ini berada di Timur Tengah, di mana dia menghabiskan Rabu di Qatar, setelah mengunjungi Arab Saudi sehari sebelumnya. Pada hari Kamis, Trump akan berada di Uni Emirat Arab sebelum kembali ke Washington.
Apa artinya absennya Putin?
Zelenskyy sebelumnya mengatakan bahwa dia akan hadir dalam pembicaraan hanya jika Putin juga hadir. “Putin adalah orang yang menentukan segalanya di Rusia, jadi dialah yang harus menyelesaikan perang ini. Inilah perangnya. Oleh karena itu, negosiasi harus dilakukan dengannya,” kata Zelenskyy dalam sebuah posting pada X pada hari Selasa.
Dengan Putin sekarang tidak lagi akan hadir, tidak jelas apakah Zelenskyy akan secara pribadi berpartisipasi dalam pembicaraan atau apakah dia akan membiarkan timnya bergabung dalam negosiasi.
Namun, dengan banyak cara, Zelenskyy unggul atas Putin dengan melemparkan tantangan dan memintanya untuk hadir.
“Zelenskyy telah menantang Rusia untuk menunjukkan minat yang tulus; terserah Rusia apakah mereka akan menerima tantangan ini atau tidak,” kata Giles.
Presiden Brasil Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva juga berjanji untuk mendorong Putin untuk hadir dalam pembicaraan.
Apa yang akan dibahas dalam pertemuan ini?
Sulit untuk memprediksi apa yang mungkin dibahas dalam pembicaraan di Turki.
“Akan gegabah untuk memprediksi apakah akan ada pembahasan yang bermakna sama sekali, karena hasil yang diterima oleh keduanya masih jauh berbeda,” kata Giles. “Rusia ingin menetralkan Ukraina sebagai negara berdaulat independen, sementara Ukraina ingin bertahan.”
Saat ini, Ukraina telah mengusulkan gencatan senjata 30 hari tanpa syarat, sementara Rusia telah menegaskan bahwa serangkaian tuntutannya harus diterima sebelum dia bergabung dalam gencatan senjata tersebut. Moskow mengatakan bahwa mereka menginginkan jaminan atas mekanisme pemantauan untuk gencatan senjata, dan bahwa gencatan senjata tidak akan digunakan oleh Ukraina untuk mempersenjatai ulang dan memobilisasi lebih banyak tentara. Sebaliknya, Putin telah mengumumkan gencatan senjata singkat, secara sepihak dalam beberapa hari terakhir yang Ukraina katakan tidak pernah ditaati oleh Moskow.
“Kami tidak menutup kemungkinan bahwa, selama negosiasi ini, akan mungkin untuk setuju mengenai gencatan senjata baru, gencatan senjata baru dan gencatan senjata yang sebenarnya, yang akan diperhatikan bukan hanya oleh Rusia, tetapi juga oleh pihak Ukraina. [Ini] akan menjadi langkah pertama, saya ulangi, menuju perdamaian jangka panjang yang berkelanjutan, dan bukan sekadar prolog untuk kelanjutan konflik bersenjata,” kata Putin pada hari Minggu.
Seberapa penting pertemuan ini?
Giles mengatakan bahwa jika pembicaraan terjadi, “mereka akan menjadi langkah maju yang signifikan”.
Dia menambahkan: “Segala sesuatu yang disebut sebagai pembicaraan perdamaian [sampai sejauh ini] belum ada apa-apanya,” menggambarkan dua pembicaraan sejajar yang dimiliki AS dengan Rusia dan Ukraina.
Pada 19 Maret, AS, Ukraina dan Rusia mengumumkan gencatan senjata 30 hari terhadap serangan terhadap infrastruktur energi Rusia dan Ukraina, dan pada 25 Maret, mereka setuju tentang kesepakatan Laut Hitam, menghentikan penggunaan militer kapal dagang dan penggunaan kekerasan di Laut Hitam. Namun, kedua belah pihak saling menyalahkan karena melanggar ketentuan-ketentuan tersebut, yang sekarang telah kadaluarsa.