During their visit to New Delhi, India, United States Vice President JD Vance and his family received a warm welcome from Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The Prime Minister showed them around his residence and gifted each of Vance’s three children a peacock feather.
However, this friendly interaction took place against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump’s threat to impose significant tariffs on Indian goods as part of the ongoing trade war. The tariffs, including a 26 percent levy on Indian exports to the US, are currently on hold for 90 days, except for China. India is currently facing a 10 percent tariff.
The US is India’s largest trading partner and negotiations are ongoing to secure a bilateral trade agreement to avoid a tariff battle. However, Indian farmers are concerned that such a deal may weaken protections for agriculture in India.
As Vance and his family prepared to explore tourist attractions in India, including the Taj Mahal, protests erupted in several Indian villages where farmers expressed their discontent by burning effigies of Vance and chanting slogans against selling out India.
The visit is crucial as it aims to deepen the bilateral relationship between India and the US, with a focus on trade, energy, defense, and strategic technologies. Both countries are working towards enhancing cooperation, but details of the trade negotiations have not been disclosed.
Despite the strategic partnership between India and the US, concerns remain about the impact of Trump’s tariff threats on the relationship. Critics fear that India may be too accommodating to US demands, potentially harming its security and economy. The US is pressuring India for concessions, but India has refrained from retaliating with its own tariffs.
India and the US have a significant trade relationship, with the US surpassing China as India’s largest trading partner in 2024. The countries are aiming to expand their bilateral trade to $500bn by 2030. Last year, US exports to India totaled $41.8bn, while Indian exports to the US reached $87.4bn.
India’s leading export products include pearls, electrical machinery, and pharmaceutical products. Additionally, India exports organic chemicals, textile articles, steel, and apparel to the US. The US trade deficit with India is $45.7bn in 2024, in favor of New Delhi, ranking India 10th among countries with the largest trade deficits with the US. President Trump has accused India of being a “tariff abuser” and “tariff king” due to its strong tariffs and trade barriers. Although India has offered some concessions, its tariffs on US goods remain high compared to US tariffs on Indian goods. Negotiations for a trade deal between India and the US are ongoing, with the hope of reaching a first phase agreement by the end of the year. However, challenges remain, especially in agriculture, where India’s high tariffs protect its domestic market and farmers. Misalnya, India menyumbang 40 persen dari ekspor beras global.
Tetapi India telah menjaga tarif tinggi untuk melindungi petani dari impor yang mungkin membanjiri pasar domestik – hampir separuh dari populasi India bergantung pada pertanian atau sektor pertanian.
India juga mengekspor udang, ekstrak sayuran, minyak jarak, dan lada hitam; sebaliknya, AS mengirimkan kenari, apel, almond, dan pistachio.
Sekarang, AS ingin menyeimbangkan persamaan tersebut dan telah memberi tekanan pada India untuk mengurangi tarif sehingga produk pertanian mereka dapat masuk ke negara terpadat di dunia dengan lebih mudah.
Prospek itu membuat banyak petani India gelisah.
“Kami benar-benar dipinggirkan dalam negosiasi perdagangan ini – tidak ada transparansi; dan dalam suatu sistem federal seperti India, bagaimana pemerintah bisa berfungsi seperti ini?” kata Vijoo Krishnan, sekretaris jenderal All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS), serikat petani tertua India yang memimpin protes terhadap kunjungan Vance. AIKS adalah sayap petani dari Partai Komunis India, yang merupakan bagian dari oposisi nasional.
“Pemerintahan Modi telah meluncur ke arah perdagangan bebas dan memangkas bea impor – dan jika itu mencakup sektor pertanian, maka kita akan celaka,” katanya, berargumen bahwa petani India tidak akan mampu bersaing dengan rekan-rekan Barat mereka, yang “jauh lebih kaya”.
Petani India sudah pernah menunjukkan kekuatan politik mereka kepada Modi: Protes besar memaksa perdana menteri untuk menarik tiga undang-undang pertanian kontroversial pada tahun 2021.
“Protes dan pembatalan undang-undang merupakan kekalahan memalukan bagi pemerintah Modi – mereka sedang membalas dendam kepada para petani dengan mendorong mereka di bawah bus sekarang [melalui kesepakatan perdagangan dengan Trump],” klaim Krishnan.
Setiap keringanan tarif impor pertanian perlu dipertimbangkan risiko yang mungkin ditimbulkannya terhadap mata pencaharian jutaan petani India, peringatkan Dhar, ekonom perdagangan.
“Jika kita menuruti tuntutan AS dalam negosiasi, itu akan menciptakan sejumlah besar masalah ekonomi, sosial, dan politik bagi pemerintah,” kata Dhar. “Mereka sebenarnya tidak bisa mengambil risiko nyawa jutaan orang India.”