Davos is fast approaching, coinciding with the inauguration of Donald J. Trump 2.0, and there is a sense of unease in Europe. Former French foreign minister Hubert Védrine likens Mr. Trump to an asteroid hurtling towards Earth, sparking debates about the potential impact within the exclusive internationalist community that convenes annually in the luxurious Swiss Alps.
Mr. Trump’s rhetoric includes talk of imposing significant new tariffs, the idea of seizing territories such as Canada, Greenland, and the Panama Canal, as well as conditioning American involvement in European defense on increased military spending by Europeans and a reduction in their trade surplus with the United States.
While some analysts, like Mr. Védrine, caution that Mr. Trump’s bluster often precedes negotiation and that his threats are not always realized, the looming shadow of his administration casts a long shadow over discussions at Davos. One of the central topics likely to dominate conversations is the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia remains steadfast in his belief that Russia is winning the war in Ukraine and that Western support for the country is dwindling. Negotiations to end the bloodshed are on the horizon, but the terms are likely to be stringent, reflecting Russia’s strategic interests in the region.
The future of Europe’s security hangs in the balance as Mr. Putin’s ambitions extend beyond Ukraine, aiming to reshape the security architecture of the continent. European leaders are divided on the urgency of the threat posed by Russia and the extent to which they should bolster their own defenses. With Mr. Trump’s focus shifting towards China, Europe finds itself at a critical juncture, unprepared for the newfound responsibility of ensuring its own security.
As discussions at Davos unfold, the question of Ukraine’s future security remains a pivotal issue. While some advocate for increased European support for Ukraine and a more robust defense strategy, others question the feasibility and cost of such measures. The prospect of European troops intervening in Ukraine post-ceasefire is met with skepticism, underscoring the complexities and uncertainties surrounding the region’s stability.
Amidst these deliberations, President Zelensky of Ukraine emphasizes the need for security guarantees, with NATO membership being his preferred solution. However, the likelihood of Ukraine joining NATO remains uncertain, prompting calls for a more pragmatic approach to negotiations and regional stability.
As the world watches the events at Davos unfold, the fate of Ukraine and the broader implications for European security hang in the balance, with the specter of Mr. Trump’s administration casting a long shadow over the discussions.