Chances can be surprising. For example, a 1-in-100 odds may seem unlikely until you realize it’s the probability of an asteroid hitting Earth. This week, early warning systems discovered that an asteroid scheduled to pass by Earth in 2032 has a 1-in-63 chance of colliding with our planet. Here’s what you should know about this asteroid, its potential consequences, and why there’s no need to panic just yet.
The asteroid, named 2024 YR4, was first spotted by NASA’s ATLAS system in Chile on December 27, 2024. Estimates suggest it is between 130 and 300 feet wide and currently moving away from Earth at a speed of 8.24 miles per second. NASA predicts that the asteroid could potentially impact Earth multiple times between 2032 and 2071, with the highest likelihood on December 22, 2032. However, as it moves away from the Sun, its visibility decreases, making it harder to detect.
While potentially hazardous asteroids like 2024 YR4 are common, the chances of them actually colliding with Earth are low. Different monitoring systems, such as the Catalina Sky Survey and the LINEAR program, help track and study these objects to assess the risks they pose. The Sentry Impact Risk Table managed by CNEOS ranks asteroids based on their potential hazard, with 2024 YR4 currently at the top of the list with a 1-in-63 chance of impact.
Despite the concerning odds, an impact from 2024 YR4 would not cause a global catastrophe on the scale of the asteroid that wiped out the dinosaurs. NASA estimates it would produce around 8 megatons of energy, similar to the Tunguska blast of 1908. However, if the asteroid is on the larger end of its mass range, the impact could be much more devastating.
Overall, while the probability of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth may seem alarming, it is important to remember that scientists are constantly monitoring and refining their predictions. With continued observations and modeling, the likelihood of an impact may decrease significantly.