At first glance, it appeared to be a regular closed-door meeting between the interim leader of Bangladesh and Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, along with the heads of the country’s armed forces, to discuss law and order.
However, on May 20, the meeting took place amidst what multiple officials, familiar with the inner workings of the government, described as a deepening power struggle in Dhaka. This conflict, portrayed as a “cold war” between the armed forces and the interim administration in both social and mainstream media in Bangladesh, now jeopardizes Yunus’s position, nine months after assuming office following the removal of former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and the ruling Awami League.
Hasina fled to India in August 2024 during a mass uprising against her 15-year rule, during which she was accused of involvement in extrajudicial killings and enforced disappearances.
This article delves into the latest turmoil in Bangladesh and its implications for the country’s efforts to restore electoral democracy.
The Bangladesh Army has been deployed since July 2024, following mass protests that led to the ousting of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina. The army’s continued presence was deemed necessary due to the breakdown of civilian law enforcement during the unrest, including a nationwide police strike that left many stations deserted and public order in chaos.
While the police resumed operations in mid-August, the army’s deployment has been sustained as part of a civil-military consensus, owing to the unrest in the country.
Recently, Bangladesh’s army chief publicly called for national elections to be held by December this year, cautioning that the prolonged deployment of the army for civil duties could compromise the country’s defenses.
General Waker’s comments indicate a divergence of views with the Yunus administration’s plan to hold elections no earlier than mid-2026, allowing time for political and electoral reforms to ensure a fair election.
Reports suggest that General Waker is also opposed to key initiatives proposed by the interim government, including a humanitarian corridor into Myanmar’s Rakhine State. He emphasized that only an elected government should make such decisions to prevent Bangladesh from being drawn into a dangerous proxy conflict.
Moreover, General Waker expressed concerns about other decisions being made without an electoral mandate, such as potential foreign management of Chattogram Port and the launch of Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite internet service, which he believes could compromise national security.
The army chief’s remarks come amidst speculation, unaddressed by either the military or the government, that the Yunus administration attempted to remove General Waker from his position last week. This rumor has fueled discussions on civil-military relations during the transitional period.
General Waker’s assertive public statement, emphasizing constitutional processes and national sovereignty, is seen as a sign of growing unease within the military over the interim government’s expanding civilian initiatives, according to analysts.
Since its establishment on August 8 last year, the interim government has faced mounting pressure from various factions. The main opposition, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), insists on holding national elections by December, while other political groups advocate for extensive reforms and the prosecution of former Awami League leaders responsible for crackdowns on student protests.
The BNP has also staged protests demanding the reinstatement of its candidate, who allegedly lost a rigged mayoral election under the Awami League regime. The party has called for an election by the end of the year and the resignation of certain advisers, warning that continued cooperation with the Yunus-led administration hinges on these actions.
Yunus is scheduled to meet with the BNP and Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (BJI), the largest Islamic political party in Bangladesh, on Saturday.
As turmoil escalates, speculation grows about Yunus potentially resigning from his position.
Local media reported that there was speculation that he planned to step down and address the nation in a televised statement after a cabinet meeting on Thursday afternoon. Later that evening, Nahid Islam, a student leader from the July uprising and leader of the National Citizen Party (NCP), met with Yunus to appeal for him to reconsider his decision to resign.
Following the meeting, Nahid confirmed to BBC Bangla that Yunus was seriously considering stepping down. Sources within the interim administration told Al Jazeera on Friday evening that Yunus was still weighing his options. It was revealed that Yunus may convene an emergency cabinet meeting on Saturday to discuss the next steps, with his resignation still a possibility.
Yunus is reportedly considering resigning due to increasing political pressure and the failure of political parties and government institutions to cooperate in implementing state reforms since the previous government fell. He expressed concerns about the possibility of a fair election and feeling overwhelmed by protests and political deadlock.
The BNP leader stated that they do not want Yunus to resign and emphasized the need for a free and fair election to restore democracy. He called for the administration to move into caretaker mode and remove controversial figures to ensure a credible election process. The BNP believes that reforms and elections can progress simultaneously and expressed confidence in the Election Commission and the army’s role in ensuring a fair vote.
Other political parties, including the NCP, called for unity among all parties to support the interim government and work towards a credible election under Yunus after key reforms are implemented. They emphasized the importance of holding elections after necessary changes to prevent authoritarian practices and maintain public trust. Pada Kamis, dia mendorong Yunus untuk mengadakan dialog semua pihak untuk menyelesaikan krisis.
Lalu, pada Jumat malam, Shafiqur Rahman BJI meminta pertemuan dengan Yunus, mengusulkan untuk berkumpul pada pukul 12:00 GMT (jam 6 sore waktu lokal) pada Sabtu.
Berbicara kepada Al Jazeera pada malam Jumat, Sarwar Tushar, Konvenor Bersama NCP mengatakan: “Terlepas dari desas-desus, kami percaya Dr Muhammad Yunus berkomitmen pada tanggung jawab sejarahnya.
“Ada harapan besar – baik dari komunitas internasional maupun rakyat,” tambahnya.
Meskipun mengakui adanya perpecahan politik, Tushar mengatakan: “Jika semua orang melampaui agenda partai dan fokus pada agenda nasional, krisis dapat diselesaikan melalui dialog.”
Apa yang bisa kita harapkan selanjutnya?
Analisis politik Rezaul Karim Rony mengatakan kepada Al Jazeera bahwa pembicaraan tentang pengunduran diri Yunus mungkin mencerminkan kefrustrasian yang meningkat atas kurangnya kesatuan dalam setup transisi. “Kesatuan yang terbentuk di sekitar pemerintahan interim pasca pemberontakan tampaknya melemah karena kepentingan pribadi,” katanya. “Pembicaraan tentang pengunduran diri mungkin menjadi sinyal yang menekankan perlunya membangun kembali kesatuan itu.”
Rony menyarankan bahwa beberapa penunjukan pemerintah tertentu mungkin telah menjauhkan partai politik, menimbulkan pertanyaan apakah beberapa aktor memiliki agenda di luar mandat reformasi resmi. “Ini bisa menjadi salah satu alasan mengapa pemerintah kesulitan mendapatkan kerjasama politik yang luas dan berfungsi secara efektif,” katanya.
Rony menambahkan: “Pada titik ini, advokasi untuk pemilihan mungkin [membuat administrasi] terlihat bersekutu secara politik dengan BNP. Tetapi pada akhirnya, seharusnya menjadi keputusan rakyat untuk memutuskan siapa yang mereka inginkan untuk memimpin.”
Nahid Islam dari NCP, bagaimanapun, melihat sebaliknya.
Dia memperingatkan dalam sebuah pos Facebook pada malam Jumat: “Ada konspirasi untuk merusak transisi demokratis dan menyelenggarakan pengaturan seperti 1/11 lainnya.”
Istilah “1/11” merujuk pada 11 Januari 2007, ketika pemerintah penjagaan yang didukung oleh militer mengambil alih kendali di Bangladesh di tengah kekacauan politik dan berkuasa selama dua tahun, menangguhkan proses demokratis.
“Bangladesh telah berulang kali terbagi, kesatuan nasional hancur, untuk menjaga negara tetap lemah,” tulis Nahid.
Mendorong Yunus untuk tetap di kantor dan memberikan janji reformasi, keadilan, dan hak pilih, dia berkata, “Dr Yunus harus menyelesaikan semua krisis politik saat masih menjabat.”
Dia juga merinci tuntutan NCP: deklarasi Juli tepat waktu, pemilu dalam jangka waktu yang diumumkan (Yunus telah berulang kali menjanjikan bahwa pemilu akan diadakan antara Desember 2025 hingga Juli 2026), Piagam Juli dengan reformasi inti sebelum pemungutan suara, keadilan yang terlihat untuk pembunuhan Juli, dan peta jalan untuk konstitusi baru melalui pemilu serentak ke Majelis Konstituante dan legislatif.
Sementara itu, kecemasan publik meningkat. Pada Jumat, Angkatan Darat Bangladesh mengeluarkan peringatan Facebook untuk membantah rilis media palsu yang beredar sehari sebelumnya, yang salah menggunakan logo militer dalam apa yang digambarkan sebagai “upaya nyata untuk menimbulkan kebingungan dan menciptakan perpecahan” antara angkatan bersenjata dan publik. “Jangan percaya desas-desus. Jangan tertipu,” pernyataan itu memperingatkan.
Seiring akhir pekan semakin dekat, semua mata tertuju pada Muhammad Yunus – dan apakah dia akan mengundurkan diri, bertahan teguh, atau membentuk konsensus baru untuk memimpin negara melalui transisi kedua sejak pemberontakan dramatis tahun lalu.