\”BBC\”It’s unbelievable! We’re on the brink of a general election. The country is in turmoil. Our economy is at a standstill… But many German news outlets are fixated on Trump, Trump, Trump!
Iris Mühler, an engineering teacher in north-east Germany, is just one of the voters I’ve spoken to in anticipation of the snap elections in February. She’s not the only one who feels this way.
Despite facing their own internal challenges, major EU countries like Germany and France, Europe has been consumed by Trump ever since he won the US presidential election in November.
Trump’s return to the White House has caused European leaders to contemplate the vulnerabilities of the continent. The last time he was in office, Europe faced many obstacles. There are concerns that Trump 2.0 could be even more challenging. Meanwhile, traditional powers like France and Germany are grappling with political and economic issues, and the EU is lagging behind China and the US in terms of competitiveness. In the UK, public services are in a dire state.
So, is Europe ready for Donald Trump or have they been caught off guard yet again?
A businessman who disregards alliances
When it comes to trade and defense, Trump behaves more like a transactional businessman than a statesman who values transatlantic alliances dating back to World War Two.
“He simply does not believe in mutually beneficial partnerships,” former German Chancellor Angela Merkel explained. She experienced Trump’s leadership during his previous term and concluded that he sees the world in terms of winners and losers.
He is convinced that Europe has been taking advantage of the US for years, and he believes that needs to change.
Leaders in Europe have been astonished by Trump’s behavior ever since he won the US presidential election for the second time. He has chosen to publicly criticize allies in Europe and Canada, rather than focusing on those he sees as strategic threats, like China.
Trump has hinted at the possibility of withdrawing from NATO, the transatlantic military alliance that Europe has relied on for security for decades. He has stated that he would “encourage” Russia to act as they wish with European allies if they do not increase their defense spending and contribute more financially.
When it comes to trade, Trump is equally displeased with the EU now as he was during his first term in office. The EU exports much more to the US than it imports, resulting in a trade surplus of €15.4 billion (£13 billion) in January 2022. Trump has proposed imposing blanket tariffs of 10-20% on all foreign imports, with even higher rates on certain products like cars.
This scenario poses a significant threat to Germany, which heavily relies on exports, particularly in the automobile industry. With the economy already struggling, any tariffs could cause further damage. As the largest economy in the eurozone, financial troubles in Germany could have repercussions for the entire currency bloc.
Germany is at the top of Trump’s target list
Merkel has noted that during his previous term, Trump seemed to have a particular dislike for Germany.
Ian Bond, deputy director of the Centre for European Reform, believes that Germany will remain at the top of Trump’s list of European targets. “In the past, he has made comments like not wanting to see any Mercedes-Benz cars on the streets of New York. This is quite absurd, considering that most Mercedes-Benz vehicles on the streets of New York are manufactured in Alabama, where Mercedes has a significant plant.”
“He has often shown more hostility towards Germany than any other European country. It might be slightly easier for Germany with a new and more conservative government after the upcoming general election, but I wouldn’t hold my breath.”
The UK hopes to avoid Trump’s tariffs due to a more balanced trade relationship with the US, but they could still be affected if an EU-US trade war erupts.
How prepared is Europe, really?
Trump’s aggressive approach should come as no surprise to European allies after his first term in office. The real challenge for Europe now is deciphering how much of his rhetoric is bluster and intimidation, and how much will translate into action.
Ian Lesser, vice president at the German Marshall Fund of the United States think tank, believes that Trump’s tariff threats are genuine, and Europe is far from ready. “They are not prepared, no one really is. This very different approach to global trade disrupts many foundations of the international economy, which has evolved over decades.”
The European Commission claims to be prepared for any actions Trump may take upon his return to the White House. As a major trade power on the world stage, the EU is equipped to handle various scenarios. However, Mr. Lesser warns that the biggest impact on Europe could come if Trump initiates a trade war against China. This could lead to supply chain disruptions for Europe and an influx of cheap Chinese products into European markets, harming local businesses.
Trade, defense, and the Musk factor
Complicating matters further is the intertwining of trade and defense in Trump’s administration. Recently, he refused to rule out economic or military action against EU and NATO member Denmark if they did not hand over the autonomous territory of Greenland to the US.
Additionally, Trump’s incoming vice president hinted at the possibility of US defense of Europe being contingent on EU regulatory bodies backing off from the social platform X. JD Vance warned that the US could withdraw support for NATO if the EU continued its investigation into X, which is owned by Elon Musk.
Elon Musk has also shown an interest in European politics by publicly criticizing center-left leaders in the UK and Germany. Musk endorsed the extreme anti-migration AfD party in Germany, causing shock among many Europeans. However, polls indicate that Musk’s controversial statements have little influence on European public opinion. Both Trump and Musk are widely distrusted in Europe, as evident in a recent poll commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations.
From ego stroking to spending money
Different European leaders have varied approaches to dealing with Trump, with some choosing to stroke his ego and others opting to spend money.
French President Emmanuel Macron is known for flattering Trump. He was among the first to congratulate him on social media after his reelection and invited him to the grand reopening of the Notre Dame Cathedral in Paris. Macron previously impressed Trump by hosting him as a guest of honor at Bastille Day celebrations in Paris.
The UK capitalizes on Trump’s affection for Scotland and the British Royal Family. Trump enjoyed attending a state banquet with Queen Elizabeth II and praised Prince William after meeting with him.
Others in Europe prefer a more financial approach. European Central Bank chief Christine Lagarde advises negotiating with Trump rather than retaliating against his proposed tariffs. Ursula von der Leyen, president of the European Commission, suggests purchasing more expensive US liquefied natural gas (LNG) to diversify energy supplies. Europe has been reducing its reliance on cheap Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine by Russia.
Leaders in the European Commission are also considering buying more US agricultural products and weapons.
Should Europe strive for greater self-sufficiency?
Macron has long advocated for Europe to achieve “strategic autonomy,” which would involve the continent becoming more self-sufficient in various aspects.
In conclusion, Europe faces a complex and challenging situation as it navigates its relationship with Trump. The continent must carefully consider how to respond to his policies and actions to protect its interests and maintain stability in the face of uncertainty.