Before the United States presidential elections on Tuesday, public opinion polls had forecasted a close race between Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. However, Trump ended up winning comfortably, defying the majority of polls. He secured victories in five out of seven swing states – Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, Michigan, and Wisconsin – and is expected to win Arizona and Nevada as well. Trump’s margins of victory in these states were larger than what the polls had predicted. Despite most polls showing Harris ahead in the popular vote, Trump is currently on track to win by a margin of nearly 5 million votes. This would be the largest popular vote win for a Republican since George HW Bush in 1988. Trump has already secured 295 Electoral College votes, well above the 270 needed to win, while Harris only won 226. If he wins Arizona and Nevada as predicted, Trump will end up with 312 Electoral College votes. The polls initially predicted a close race in the swing states, with Harris expected to win the traditionally Democrat states of Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Trump was leading in North Carolina, Georgia, and Arizona, while Nevada was too close to call. However, on election night, Trump won all three key swing states and is likely to win Arizona by a significant margin. In states that Harris won, such as New York, New Jersey, and New Hampshire, the polls underestimated Trump’s support and predicted larger margins of victory for Harris than what actually occurred. Pollsters always caution that their surveys have margins of error, typically around 4 percent, which can affect the accuracy of their predictions. Nate Silver, founder of pollster FiveThirtyEight, had initially predicted a deadlock but later shifted slightly towards Harris winning. Despite these shifts, the polls ultimately failed to accurately predict the election results. Polling in the US has a mixed history of accuracy, with recent elections showing significant inaccuracies, particularly in estimating support for Trump. Several factors contribute to polling errors, including the difficulty in reaching certain demographics, such as Republican voters, and the impact of political polarization on survey participation. Online betting sites have emerged as alternative predictors of election outcomes, often outperforming traditional polls in their accuracy.
