The ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Hamas in Beirut, Lebanon has brought hope that Israel’s 15-month war in Gaza will finally come to an end, and that Israeli hostages and Palestinian prisoners will be released. However, there are concerns among analysts that the deal may not proceed as planned. The agreement, approved by Israel’s security cabinet, is divided into three phases, potentially leaving room for violations or backtracking, particularly by Israel. The first phase involves a 42-day period that includes the release of captives and prisoners, an Israeli withdrawal from populated areas, and an increase in aid, followed by additional phases with more exchanges and a permanent withdrawal from Gaza.
Experts fear that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who has opposed a ceasefire and insisted on the destruction of Hamas, may resume hostilities after the captives are released, under the guise of punishing Hamas and reinforcing Israel’s security. The ceasefire was announced by outgoing US President Joe Biden and Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, with support from President-elect Donald Trump. The deal aims to end a devastating war that has been condemned as genocide by legal scholars, rights groups, and the United Nations.
The ceasefire deal has similarities to a previous agreement proposed in May, which was accepted by Hamas but rejected by Israel. The vagueness of the current deal raises concerns about Israel’s full withdrawal from Gaza. Political tensions within Israel, particularly with far-right ministers threatening to leave the coalition if the ceasefire proceeds, add to the uncertainty surrounding the agreement.
The potential return of the Palestinian Authority to govern Gaza worries Israel, as it could lead to increased pressure for Palestinian statehood. Experts do not foresee a complete Israeli withdrawal from Gaza due to fears of Hamas regaining control. The history of Gaza suggests that without a political framework addressing root causes, the cycle of escalation and de-escalation may continue.