Saham Anjlok Tajam, Imbal Hasil Obligasi Merokot karena Kekhawatiran Inflasi

Indeks S&P 500 ($SPX) (SPY) hari Jumat ditutup turun -1,24%, Dow Jones Industrial Average ($DOWI) (DIA) turun -1,07%, dan Nasdaq 100 Index ($IUXX) (QQQ) turun -1,54%. Futures E-mini S&P Juni (ESM26) jatuh -1,26%, dan futures E-mini Nasdaq Juni (NQM26) turun -1,56%.

Harga saham jatuh banget hari Jumat, karena pasar obligasi global dijual besar-besaran. Harga minyak mentah naik tinggi bikin orang takut inflasi. Keraguan soal kestabilan pasokan minyak dari Timur Tengah bikin WTI mencapai level tertinggi 1,5 minggu, karena negosiasi damai AS-Iran masih gak jelas dan Selat Hormuz masih ditutup. Harga minyak yang melonjak bikin imbal hasil obligasi (bond yields) naik di mana-mana. Yield JGB 10 tahun Jepang melonjak ke level tertinggi 29 tahun, Gilt 10 tahun Inggris ke level 18 tahun, Bund Jerman 10 tahun ke level 15 tahun, dan T-note 10 tahun naik ke 4,60%, level tertinggi 11,75 bulan.

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Kerugian saham makin parah hari Jumat setelah imbal hasil naik karena berita ekonomi AS bagus. Survei manufaktur Empire State Mei naik +8,6 ke angka 19,6, lebih tinggi dari perkiraan yang cuma 7,2 – dan ini level tertinggi 4 taun. Produksi manufaktur April juga naik +0,6% dibanding bulan sebelumnya, lebih kuaat dari yang diperkirakan hanya +0,2%.

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