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By now, you’ve probably heard about the Trump administration’s latest tariff formula, which has raised some eyebrows. One interesting detail is the inclusion of an academic paper in the “references” section that was not mentioned in the main text: Trade Wars with Trade Deficits (2024) by Pau Pujolas and Jack Rossbach.
The paper challenges traditional thinking about trade wars, suggesting that countries with trade deficits may have an advantage in certain scenarios. Pau Pujolas, the lead author, explains that the paper shows how bilateral trade deficits can change the dynamics of a trade war, making the question of victory more quantitative.
The authors argue that the US could theoretically win a trade war against China, but the tariffs implemented during Trump’s first term were not well-designed, resulting in losses for both sides. They recommend tariffs in the range of 10-25%, cautioning against higher tariffs as a bad idea for the United States.
However, there are discrepancies between the optimal tariffs suggested by the authors and those announced by the Trump administration. The authors used a computational model to determine optimal tariffs, while the administration’s approach seems to have taken shortcuts.
Other researchers, like Anson Soderbery and Brent Neiman, also weighed in on the issue, highlighting the importance of crafting trade policies based on industry and partner-specific effects rather than a universal tariff approach.
Overall, the discussion around tariffs and trade deficits is complex, and it’s clear that more nuanced approaches are needed to address these economic issues effectively. The government’s reliance on simplified calculations may not capture the full impact of tariffs on trade relationships.
As we navigate the evolving landscape of international trade, it’s essential to consider the insights provided by academic research and experts in the field. The path to economic prosperity lies in thoughtful and strategic policy decisions that take into account the complexities of global trade dynamics.
Tapi adilnya, tidak ada bukti bahwa siapapun yang terlibat dalam menyusun dokumen tersebut telah membacanya.