Just a few months ago in Montreal, Canada, the governing Liberal Party appeared to be headed for a significant defeat in the upcoming 2025 election. Opinion polls indicated that Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s party was trailing the opposition Conservatives by as much as 26 percentage points. A combination of an affordability crisis, widespread disapproval of Trudeau, and calls for his resignation had caused the Liberals’ support to plummet.
However, experts now believe that the political tide is turning due to various factors, including Trudeau’s decision to step down, a Liberal leadership race that has rejuvenated the party, and US President Donald Trump’s threats against Canada. Recent surveys have shown the Liberals closing the gap behind the Conservatives, with one poll even showing the party in the lead for the first time since 2021.
“Two months ago, the Liberals were facing tough times, and many thought they were finished politically,” said Semra Sevi, an assistant professor of political science at the University of Toronto. “Now, they are experiencing a resurgence.”
Trudeau’s announcement in early January that he would resign as prime minister and Liberal Party leader once his successor is chosen has been a key factor in the party’s changing fortunes. Trudeau, who has been in office since 2015, had faced increasing public anger over his handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, rising housing prices, and cost-of-living issues. The failure to effectively counter attacks from the Conservatives, led by Pierre Poilievre, had also taken a toll on Trudeau and the Liberals.
With Trudeau stepping down, the political landscape has shifted, according to Darrell Bricker, CEO of Ipsos Public Affairs. Some voters who had sided with the Conservatives for a change are now considering other options, such as Mark Carney, the frontrunner in the Liberal Party leadership race.
The Conservative Party, on the other hand, is struggling to adjust its messaging in a post-Trudeau era. Poilievre’s success in criticizing Trudeau’s government has been hindered by Trudeau’s departure, as Canadians are now more interested in current issues, especially those related to the US.
The statements and actions of President Trump have played a significant role in the Liberals’ resurgence, with many Canadians expressing anger and nationalism in response to Trump’s threats and tariffs on Canadian goods. The focus of the upcoming Canadian election is shifting towards which party can best handle the US relationship and respond to Trump’s policies.
As Canadian anxiety over the Trump administration continues, the timing of the federal election has become more crucial. Pemilihan harus diadakan sebelum 20 Oktober, tapi Partai Liberal – sebagai partai yang berkuasa – bisa memicu pemungutan suara sebelumnya.
Sevi di Universitas Toronto mengatakan bahwa memanggil pemilihan segera setelah pemimpin baru mereka dipilih pada 9 Maret bisa membantu partai untuk menjaga momennya, “terutama dengan tekanan untuk mengatasi ancaman tarif dan masalah ekonomi seperti perumahan dan inflasi”.
Tellier mengatakan bahwa panggilan pemilihan awal juga akan memungkinkan Partai Liberal untuk menghindari beberapa keputusan politik yang berpotensi membingungkan.
Trudeau menangguhkan Parlemen pada awal Januari ketika ia mengumumkan bahwa ia akan mundur. Parlemen dijadwalkan untuk dilanjutkan pada akhir Maret.
Jika anggota parlemen kembali ke Dewan Perwakilan Rakyat, pemimpin Liberal berikutnya harus membentuk kabinet dan menyampaikan pidato yang menguraikan prioritas pemerintahan minoritas yang baru, kedua hal itu bisa menjadi kontroversial.
“Jika Anda memanggil pemilihan segera, Anda tidak perlu melakukan semua hal itu,” kata Tellier.
Pada akhirnya, kapan pun pemungutan suara dijadwalkan, para ahli sepakat bahwa Kanada menuju ke pertandingan yang sangat berbeda dari yang telah diprediksi beberapa bulan yang lalu.
“Pemilihan sedang berkembang menjadi jauh lebih kompetitif dari yang diharapkan,” kata Sevi kepada Al Jazeera, “dengan kebijakan luar negeri, kepemimpinan, dan masalah ekonomi semua memainkan peran utama.”