On Monday, Donald Trump selected Ohio Senator JD Vance as his Republican running mate for the upcoming United States presidential election, after much speculation about his choice. On the opposing side, Kamala Harris is running alongside Democrat Joe Biden. Harris, the current Vice President, made history in 2020 as the first Black woman and Asian American to be on a major party’s presidential ticket. Analysts have been dissecting Trump’s decision to choose Vance, a former venture capitalist and author who was once critical of the ex-president. But does a VP choice actually impact a presidential candidate’s chances of winning the election? Al Jazeera delves into decades of election data, polls, and analysis to find out.
The idea that a running mate can deliver their home state for a presidential candidate is a common belief, but research shows that this is not always the case. Kyle Kopko, a political science professor, has studied the electoral impact of running mates and found that VPs from small states with significant political experience tend to mobilize more votes for their presidential candidates. However, this does not apply to JD Vance. For example, Joe Biden, who hails from Delaware, was able to help Barack Obama win the presidency in 2008 and 2012 due to his long political career in the state.
Historically, presidential candidates have generally won in their running mates’ home states, but choosing a VP from a swing state does not guarantee success. In some cases, like in 1960 when John F Kennedy won Texas with Lyndon B Johnson as his running mate, the VP’s home state advantage was not as impactful as believed. Recent elections have shown mixed results when it comes to VPs delivering their home states for the ticket.
Despite the belief that a running mate can help a presidential candidate with certain demographics or swing states, research shows that this impact may be minimal. While analysts predicted that Kamala Harris would boost support among Black voters for Joe Biden, studies have shown little evidence of VPs significantly improving votes among specific voter groups. Other factors, such as aligning with the presidential candidate’s policy agenda, may play a role in VP selection.
In conclusion, the choice of a VP may not have a significant impact on a presidential candidate’s chances of winning the election. While running mates can potentially help mobilize votes in certain demographics or states, the overall national popularity of the candidate seems to be the primary factor in determining election outcomes.