There is mounting evidence to suggest that Russia increased its attacks on Ukraine leading up to the United States election on November 5 in an attempt to bolster isolationists supporting Donald Trump. This strategy seems to have continued in the lead up to Trump’s inauguration on January 20. The British Ministry of Defence reported that November marked the fifth consecutive month of increased losses for Russian forces, with Ukraine estimating that 45,680 Russian soldiers were killed or wounded during the month. The General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces also reported Russian losses of 38,130 in September and 41,980 in October. Despite these casualties, Russian ground assaults have continued to escalate. The Institute for the Study of War estimated that Russian forces gained an average of 22sq km in October and 27sq km in November, resulting in an estimated 125,800 casualties in the three-month period. These losses exceeded US officials’ expectations of Russia’s recruitment capacity, which was believed to be 25,000-30,000 per month.
Ukraine has also seen a surge in airborne attacks, with over 6,000 UAVs and missiles used in air strikes from September to November 2024. Russian information campaigns aimed at manipulating US public opinion have also intensified. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to fire a ballistic missile into Ukraine in apparent retaliation for US actions further fueled tensions. Russia’s Chief of Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed that the launch had been planned before the Biden administration’s decision to allow Ukraine to use American weapons, suggesting that Russia was not provoked but rather responding to perceived threats.
Russia’s recent attacks on Ukraine appear to be part of a broader strategy to support Trump’s agenda. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has outlined a “victory plan” that includes providing additional weapons to Ukraine and seeking immediate NATO membership. However, Russia has outlined its own terms for negotiations, including the withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from certain regions and a commitment to not join NATO. Zelenskyy’s efforts to seek NATO membership for free areas of Ukraine have highlighted the lack of political will within NATO to address the conflict.
There are concerns that Trump’s administration has compromised Ukraine’s ability to defend itself by delaying military aid. Observers fear that further cuts to US aid under Trump’s leadership could significantly impact Ukraine’s ability to resist Russian advances. However, some believe that Ukraine has already demonstrated resilience despite limited resources. If the US reduces or cuts aid to Ukraine, it could lead to further territorial losses and strengthen Russia’s position in negotiations.
Despite these challenges, there is optimism that a European coalition, particularly the Nordics, could step in to support Ukraine if the US were to withdraw aid. The willingness of European countries to provide financial assistance to Ukraine suggests that there are alternative sources of support available.