The day before the U.S. embassy in Moscow issued a rare public alert about a potential extremist attack at a Russian concert venue, the local C.I.A. station had privately warned Russian officials of the threat, specifically mentioning the involvement of an Islamic State offshoot known as ISIS-K. Despite American intelligence closely monitoring the group and deeming the threat credible, President Vladimir V. Putin dismissed the warnings as “outright blackmail” and attempts to destabilize Russian society.
Just three days after Putin’s remarks, gunmen attacked Crocus City Hall outside Moscow, resulting in the deadliest terrorist attack in Russia in nearly two decades, leaving at least 143 people dead. ISIS quickly claimed responsibility for the massacre with statements, a photo, and a propaganda video.
Leading up to the attack, Russian security agencies had acknowledged the domestic threat posed by ISIS-K, particularly focusing on the increased likelihood of an attack by ethnic Tajiks radicalized by the group. This information, obtained by the Dossier Center and reviewed by The New York Times, circulated at the highest levels of the Russian government.
The security lapse, which allowed the attack to occur despite warnings, has raised questions about Russia’s intelligence and law enforcement failures. While disrupting international terror plots is challenging even with specific information and well-coordinated security services, the failure likely resulted from a combination of factors, including a deep distrust within the Russian security establishment and strained relationships with global intelligence agencies.
Experts suggest that distractions such as Putin’s political crackdown at home and focus on Ukraine and the West may have contributed to the security failure. The expanding definition of extremism in Russia, which now includes opposition figures, LGBTQ rights activists, and Kremlin critics, has diverted resources and attention from real threats.
Although Russian authorities initially responded to warnings by increasing security measures and conducting raids, the attack still occurred, highlighting a breakdown in intelligence sharing and coordination. The failure to prevent the attack underscores the challenges of combating terrorism in a country with political dissent and an expanding definition of extremism.