Sources familiar with the discussions tell Al Jazeera that Ukraine’s European allies are exploring the option of using their air forces to protect the country’s western skies from drone and missile attacks, independent of US assistance. This plan, known as Skyshield, may involve NATO planes and pilots entering Ukrainian airspace for the first time, sending a strong message to Russia about Europe’s commitment to Ukraine’s defense. Skyshield could be implemented as part of a ceasefire, particularly if European ground forces are involved. Ukrainian and British aviation experts developed Skyshield to operate effectively under combat conditions. European countries such as the UK, France, Germany, Italy, and Scandinavian nations are considering the proposal, although some partners are still undecided.
Skyshield was conceived by the Price of Freedom, a Ukrainian think tank, during an air defense crisis last year. The plan calls for 120 European aircraft to safeguard Ukrainian civilian infrastructure and export routes along the Danube River and the Black Sea, allowing the Ukrainian Air Force to focus on defending the eastern front. European jets would be stationed in nearby Poland and Romania, protecting Kyiv on both sides of the Dnipro River in the north of Ukraine.
However, Western commanders are hesitant due to concerns about costs, casualties, and military implications. Flight costs for European aircraft range from $28,000 to $45,000 per hour, and maintaining a presence in Ukraine would be demanding for personnel. Additionally, air defense systems are effective and cost-efficient against cruise missiles, and using aircraft for this purpose may not be the most practical approach. European NATO members lack the necessary airborne radar for such operations, although Ukrainian pilots have successfully downed Russian cruise missiles using air-to-air missiles.
Moreover, Russia’s increasing use of long-range drones and missiles poses a significant threat to Ukraine, targeting civilian and industrial sites rather than military positions. These attacks have resulted in numerous casualties in Ukrainian cities. The risk of European casualties in Ukraine is a major concern, as the loss of a pilot could have serious political repercussions for European governments. Despite these challenges, proponents of Skyshield believe it is a less risky option compared to enforcing a no-fly zone or deploying European troops closer to the front lines.
Furthermore, Skyshield aims to enable the Ukrainian Air Force to strike deeper inside Russia, countering Russia’s use of controlled air bombs against Ukrainian front lines. This strategic approach seeks to intimidate Russia and deter further aggression. Hal itu juga akan memindahkan sistem peluncuran misil lebih dekat ke garis depan, meningkatkan jangkauan mereka di dalam Rusia.
CABs adalah senjata paling efektif Rusia di garis depan, dan berhasil memanfaatkan arsenal nuklirnya untuk mengintimidasi NATO agar membiarkan mereka diterbangkan.
Pemerintahan Biden menolak untuk mengizinkan Ukraina mendeploy Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMSs), yang memiliki jangkauan 300km (190 mil), karena Rusia menganggap penggunaannya bergantung pada intelijen AS, menurut pandangannya, membuat AS menjadi kobeligeran dalam perang.
Rusia juga mengancam untuk bertindak melawan setiap penempatan pasukan Eropa di Ukraina.
Sekretaris Dewan Keamanan Rusia Sergei Shoigu bulan lalu mengatakan kepada pertemuan menteri luar negeri negara-negara BRICS di Rio de Janeiro bahwa “unit militer negara-negara Barat di wilayah Ukraina… akan dianggap sebagai target sah”.
Ancaman-ancaman ini telah efektif. Pemerintahan Biden menentang gagasan mengizinkan Angkatan Udara Polandia dan Rumania untuk menembak jatuh drone dan misil di udara Ukraina yang menuju ke udara Polandia dan Rumania, kata Orobets.
Pemerintahan Biden “berpikir bahwa jika pilot Amerika atau pilot Barat mana pun memasuki wilayah udara Ukraina, maka Amerika atau negara lain akan menjadi kobeligeran,” katanya.
Hal yang sama berlaku untuk gagasan Eropa memasuki wilayah udara Ukraina.
“Mereka takut bahwa Rusia akan lalu meningkatkan konflik ke tingkat yang tidak bisa mereka tahan. Jadi itulah satu-satunya alasan. Tidak ada alasan seperti, ‘Oh, kita tidak bisa melakukannya’,” katanya.