During the aftermath of Donald Trump’s tariff announcement on April 2, the US dollar has experienced a significant decline in value amidst financial market turmoil. Despite US stock markets recovering, the dollar continues to weaken due to concerns about a potential recession resulting from Trump’s trade policies. Investors are now grappling with the idea that the dollar’s supremacy may be waning.
Deutsche Bank analysts have described the situation as a “dollar confidence crisis” following the fallout from “Liberation Day”. For decades, the US dollar has been considered a safe haven for investments, with many countries pegging their currencies to it. However, there is now growing uncertainty about the long-term stability of the dollar, leading to potential dramatic consequences.
Since April, the dollar has fallen by 3 percent against other currencies, reaching a three-year low. This decline, coupled with a 10 percent slide since the beginning of 2025, reflects a loss of trust in US economic policies. Trump’s decision to impose tariffs has sparked a selloff of US assets and raised concerns among investors about holding dollar-linked assets.
The significance of the US dollar as the primary reserve currency for the past 80 years is now being questioned. Its role was solidified during the world wars and further strengthened after Nixon’s decision to delink gold from the dollar’s value in 1971. However, Trump’s unconventional approach to international relations has eroded confidence in the US economy and financial markets, leading investors to reconsider their exposure to US assets.
If investors continue to reduce their holdings of US assets, the dollar’s value could face sustained pressure. The consequences of a lower-value dollar are complex, with potential benefits for domestic manufacturing and trade deficits, but also drawbacks such as increased inflation and higher import costs. Overall, the future of the US dollar as the dominant global currency is uncertain in light of current economic and political developments. “Tampaknya ada kecenderungan yang semakin meningkat di kalangan bank sentral untuk menyimpan emas daripada Surat Utang Amerika Serikat.
Ocampo mengatakan bahwa dia juga berpikir bahwa kepercayaan terhadap dolar telah mengalami penurunan akibat pengumuman tarif Trump dan bahwa penjualannya telah diimbangi oleh kenaikan untuk mata uang tempat perlindungan lainnya.
Pada 11 April, euro mencapai level tertinggi dalam tiga tahun di atas $1,14 dan telah mengalami kenaikan lebih dari 5 persen terhadap dolar sejak awal bulan.
Dapatkah mata uang lain mengambil tempat dolar sebagai dominator dunia?
“Untuk saat ini, saya pikir dolar akan tetap menjadi mata uang global yang dominan,” kata Ocampo.
Tapi dia juga mengatakan bahwa dengan melemahkan fondasi ekonomi AS, Trump sedang merusak dominasi dolar global. Bagi Ocampo, dia menyebutkan dua mata uang yang akan menguntungkan.
“Kami telah melihat aliran masuk ke franc Swiss belakangan ini. Tapi euro adalah alternatif nyata dari dolar,” katanya.
Saat ini euro menyumbang 20 persen dari cadangan devisa internasional – sepertiga dari jumlah dolar.
“Jika UE bisa setuju untuk lebih bersatu secara fiskal dan, yang terpenting, lebih terintegrasi di pasar keuangannya, maka itu akan menjadi mata uang yang bisa mengambil alih peran,” kata Ocampo.”