On October 1, Israel initiated a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, followed by Iran launching over 180 missiles towards Israel. The ongoing conflict in Gaza, coupled with these recent events, has heightened concerns of a wider regional conflict in the Middle East. Experts have been consulted to analyze the escalating conflict and speculate on future developments.
Israel’s objectives in Lebanon appear to have evolved from weakening Hezbollah to permanently neutralizing the group. Despite the military campaign’s impact on Hezbollah, it is unlikely to eliminate the group entirely. The Israeli government’s rhetoric suggests a focus on protecting civilians in northern Israel and reasserting Lebanese state authority over Hezbollah.
The balance of power in the Middle East is shifting, potentially weakening Iran’s influence. However, it remains uncertain whether Israel can leverage its tactical gains into strategic advantages through diplomacy. The conflict may impact the prospect of Iran developing nuclear weapons, as the loss of Hamas and Hezbollah as deterrents may prompt Iran to pursue nuclear capabilities.
Israel’s widening campaign risks inflaming sentiments among populations sympathetic to the Palestinian cause in the Middle East. Achieving peace will become more challenging if the conflict continues to spread. The lack of a clear political strategy for Gaza presents a significant obstacle to Israel’s objectives in the region.
The influence of the US administration on Israeli military operations remains uncertain, with potential implications depending on the outcome of the November election. A change in leadership could impact the dynamics of the conflict and US support for Israel.
De-escalation of the conflict is becoming increasingly difficult with each military action taken. While diplomacy remains the most viable path towards stability, the current momentum within the Israel Defense Forces and the political leadership may hinder prospects for peace. Ceasefires in Gaza and Lebanon, coupled with a focus on diplomatic solutions, could serve as potential off-ramps to avert wider conflict.