Navigating the intricate and multi-layered power structure of Iran’s regime can be a daunting task for both insiders and outsiders alike. Despite the appearance of strict control by a single cleric, the ruling elite of the Islamic Republic is undergoing significant changes as factions gear up for the battle to succeed the aging supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. This period of political flux has major implications for Middle East security, especially as tensions between Iran and Israel have escalated in recent weeks.
At the center of this complex web of power lies Ayatollah Khamenei, who holds ultimate decision-making authority on major domestic and foreign policy issues. While he vehemently opposes the West, particularly the US and Israel, Khamenei has shown a pragmatic side by prioritizing the regime’s survival over strict adherence to Islamic principles. President Ebrahim Raisi closely follows Khamenei’s guidance, positioning himself as a potential successor.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, under Khamenei’s control, wields significant influence across various aspects of Iranian society, serving as a powerful shadow government. With Iran’s strategy of asymmetric warfare and support for proxy forces in the region, the Guards play a key role in shaping the country’s foreign policy and military capabilities.
Despite Khamenei’s confrontational stance towards the US and Israel, he has been cautious in avoiding open conflict. The role of other clerics in decision-making is limited, with the Assembly of Experts responsible for appointing the next leader but lacking oversight of Khamenei’s actions. Business interests are carefully managed by the regime to prevent them from challenging political authority, while reformists and centrists continue to push for political and economic reforms against resistance from hardliners.
As Iran’s power dynamics evolve, the world watches closely to see who will ultimately decide the country’s future path. The region’s stability hangs in the balance as Iran navigates internal power struggles and external tensions with its adversaries.