During his first address to Congress as President of the United States on March 4, Donald Trump claimed, “Europe has unfortunately spent more money on purchasing Russian oil and gas than on supporting Ukraine’s defense.”
Although Trump is not known for his accuracy with statistics, he may have been correct in this instance.
An Ember report released last Thursday estimated that European purchases of Russian gas totaled 21.9 billion euros ($23.6 billion) last year, compared to 18.7 billion euros ($20.17 billion) in financial aid to Ukraine.
This figure did not include military aid.
The European Union has reportedly provided $194 billion in military, financial, and reconstruction aid to Ukraine since the start of the conflict.
Ember expressed concerns that instead of following through on a plan to completely phase out Russian gas by 2027, the EU actually increased its imports of Russian gas by 18 percent last year.
“The EU must shift away from costly and unpredictable fossil gas to align with its security, economic, and climate objectives, starting with a clear roadmap for phasing out Russian gas,” Ember stated.
Vladyslav Vlasiuk, a Ukrainian presidential adviser, expressed disappointment to EU ambassadors in Kyiv in January over the EU’s gas imports from Russia in the previous year.
“It is time to stop the flow of petrodollars that fuel Russia’s aggression,” he emphasized.
Yiannis Bassias, an energy analyst at Amphorenergy, confirmed that Europe increased its imports of Russian gas in 2023 and 2024, with projections indicating further increases in 2025 due to limitations in US gas supply.
“In 2024, Russian gas consumption in Europe was around 45 billion cubic meters (bcm), while US gas stood at 57 bcm,” Bassias added.
Decreasing Russian Energy Sales to Europe
Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the EU significantly reduced its energy imports from Russia.
At its peak in 2019, European gas supply from Russia was 179 bcm, but it dropped to 31 bcm in 2024 as a direct result of the conflict.
The OIES reported that this volume could further decrease to 16-18 bcm in 2025 due to pipeline disruptions.
Various pipelines carrying Russian gas to Europe have been sabotaged or halted, leading to a significant decline in gas imports.
The only remaining Russian gas pipeline, TurkStream, has limited capacity and cannot compensate for the loss of other pipelines.
OIES director Jonathan Stern mentioned that the industry is debating the potential return of Russian pipeline gas if peace is achieved, along with the lifting of sanctions on Russian LNG.
The report indicates that the recovery process might be complex, involving financial support for pipeline operators and resolving contractual disputes.
While the EU has made efforts to reduce its reliance on Russian oil, there have been challenges due to illicit imports and a shadow fleet delivering oil from Russia.
The Kyiv School of Economics estimated that Russia generated $189 billion from oil sales in 2024, showing a slight increase from the previous year.
Political Considerations vs. Economic Realities
Ember argues that the EU’s energy decisions are not economically sound, as investments in gas infrastructure could lead to surplus gas supply by 2030.
They believe this diverts funds from renewable energy transition and exposes Europe to price fluctuations and supply uncertainties.
However, Stern disagreed with Ember’s assessment, stating that gas investments may still be viable in the near future based on government actions and infrastructure plans.
Some experts suggest that political motives, rather than economic considerations, are guiding the EU’s energy choices.
There are discussions about potential cooperation between the US and Russia in Arctic exploration, despite tensions caused by the conflict in Ukraine.
Energy analyst Miltiadis Aslanoglou acknowledged the complexities of reducing energy imports from Russia, highlighting the diplomatic challenges in completely severing ties with a neighboring energy supplier.
Jadi Eropa tetap membuka pintu,” kata Aslanoglou kepada Al Jazeera.
Dia menyarankan Eropa sedang menjaga kehidupan mantan raksasa gas Rusia Gazprom.
“Gazprom pasti bukan perusahaan triliun dolar seperti lima tahun yang lalu, dan tidak ada yang tahu apakah akan ada lagi dalam lima tahun ke depan,” kata Aslanoglou. “Saat ini, [itu] dalam kesulitan keuangan yang sangat. Mereka hampir tidak bisa merawat jaringan pipa di dalam Rusia, yang sudah berusia 50 atau 60 tahun.”
Realisme versus nilai
Ukraina memiliki pandangan yang berbeda.
Serangan drone jarak jauhnya di dalam Rusia sejak September lalu menunjukkan kebijakan yang beralih dari menyerang gudang amunisi menjadi salah satu cara untuk mencegah pendapatan ekspor Rusia dari gas, minyak, dan produk petroleum yang disuling, menurut analisis dari kelompok Ukraina Frontelligence Insight.
Ukraina telah mencoba membunuh Gazprom dua kali tahun ini, mengirimkan drone serangan untuk menghancurkan kompresor Russkaya, yang memperbesar tekanan gas dalam pipa tunggal Rusia ke Eropa, TurkStream.
Rusia mengatakan mereka menembak jatuh sembilan drone dekat kompresor di wilayah Krasnodar Rusia pada 13 Januari dan tiga drone lainnya pada 1 Maret.
Ukraina juga mencoba memutus terminal pemindahan minyak mentah Rusia di Novorossiysk di Laut Hitam pada 17 Februari, dan berhasil merusaknya.
Prioritas Presiden Rusia Vladimir Putin untuk gencatan senjata di Laut Hitam minggu ini, kemungkinan bertujuan untuk mencegah serangan Ukraina lebih lanjut terhadap jalur ekonomi utama Rusia.
Ukraina tampaknya bukan satu-satunya yang kalah dalam skenario “politik yang baik” dengan Rusia.
Tinjauan Energi Global Badan Energi Internasional pada hari Senin menemukan bahwa upaya dekarbonisasi dunia, di mana Eropa memainkan peran utama, mulai menunjukkan hasil nyata.
Meskipun permintaan energi dunia naik 2,2 persen tahun lalu, emisi hanya naik 0,8 persen, kata IEA, karena kapasitas energi terbarukan meningkat sebesar 700 GW – rekor tahunan ke-22 berturut-turut dalam kapasitas terinstalasi baru.
Hal tersebut, kata IEA, membuktikan bahwa “pertumbuhan emisi karbon dioksida (CO2) terkait energi terus terpisah dari pertumbuhan ekonomi global”.
Pesan Ember serupa. Berbeda dengan Rusia dan Amerika Serikat, Eropa tidak memiliki banyak hidrokarbon.
Menurut Eurostat, ketergantungan pada hidrokarbon impor berarti Eropa hanya memproduksi 37 persen dari total kebutuhan energinya tahun lalu.
Ember percaya bahwa pergeseran paradigma ke teknologi energi bersih tidak hanya akan menyelamatkan Ukraina dari Rusia, tetapi juga dapat menyelamatkan Eropa dari perubahan iklim.