The conversation between two authoritarian leaders, President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and President Ilham Aliyev of Azerbaijan, was tense. President Putin was offering explanations for the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash that had killed 38 people days earlier, suggesting it could have been caused by a flock of birds, an exploding gas canister, or a Ukrainian drone. However, President Aliyev was not convinced, as it became clear that the plane had been shot down by Russian air defenses, leading to a lethal mistake.
President Aliyev publicly expressed his anger over Russia’s failure to accept responsibility for the crash, without mentioning President Putin by name. The breach between the two post-Soviet rulers, who had been close for more than two decades, was evident. President Putin had tried to keep quiet the cause of the crash, while President Aliyev insisted on Russia publicly recognizing its guilt.
The tensions between the two leaders were revealed in diplomatic communications, with President Aliyev challenging President Putin in public. Despite their previous common ground, President Aliyev refused President Putin’s suggestion to have a Moscow-based aviation body investigate the crash. Instead, he insisted that the plane’s black boxes be decoded in Brazil, displaying a clear mistrust of the Russian leader.
The aftermath of the plane crash has become a geopolitical milestone for the former Soviet Union, highlighting Azerbaijan’s rising leverage against Russia. President Aliyev has strengthened his country’s alliance with Turkey, armed Azerbaijan with high-tech weapons, and pushed Russian peacekeeping troops out of Nagorno-Karabakh. This incident has become a test case for Azerbaijan’s ability to assert itself against Russia and has implications for other post-Soviet countries watching closely.
President Aliyev has called for Russia to accept responsibility and pay compensation for the crash, while the Kremlin has stated that it is cooperating with the investigation. The working theory is that shrapnel from exploding missiles of a Russian air defense system damaged the plane, with metal fragments found at the crash site. The survivors of the crash, who were mainly seated in the rear third of the plane, recounted the terrifying experience of the flight and the subsequent crash landing.
Overall, the incident has strained the relationship between Russia and Azerbaijan, revealing a shift in power dynamics between the two countries in the post-Soviet era.