Former President Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential election was aided significantly by his success in winning multiple traditionally Democratic “blue wall” states. “It seems that Trump has broken through the blue wall, or at least enough of it, to secure the presidency,” explained David Schultz, a political science professor and author at Minnesota’s Hamline University, in an interview with Al Jazeera. As the Electoral College map gradually shifted to red once polls closed and votes were tallied, there was initially a suspicion of a “red mirage” effect. This phenomenon occurs when more Republican voters (represented by blue) tend to vote in person, while more Democrats (represented by red) mail in their votes. However, once Trump surpassed the 270 Electoral vote threshold, Democratic hopes of catching up to his lead in the early stages of counting were dashed.
The concept of the red mirage stems from the historical trend of Democrats sending more mail-in ballots, while Republicans prefer voting in person. In the 2020 election, the early electoral map appeared predominantly red, leading Trump to prematurely claim victory before all votes, especially mail-in ballots, had been counted. Ultimately, Democratic candidate Joe Biden emerged as the winner after securing key battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia, Michigan, and Wisconsin, all of which had previously been won by Republicans in the 2016 election. Analysts had anticipated a similar shift from red to blue after the initial red mirage this year.
By 6am ET on Wednesday, the Associated Press projected 277 Electoral College votes for Trump, surpassing the 270 needed for victory. Michigan, a blue wall state, was later called for Trump, further increasing his Electoral College count. Blue wall states are traditionally Democratic states that have consistently voted for the party in elections spanning from 1992 to 2012. In 2016, Trump managed to flip several of these states to red, including Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. However, in 2020, President Joe Biden reclaimed all three states, seemingly resurrecting the Democratic blue wall.
The election results in the three swing states behind the blue wall were crucial in determining the outcome. Trump secured victories in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan, contributing significantly to his overall Electoral College tally. Schultz attributed Biden’s success in reclaiming these swing states in 2020 to Trump’s handling of the COVID-19 pandemic, economic issues, and the Democrats’ campaign strategy.
In Pennsylvania, Harris failed to appeal to working-class voters and focused heavily on women’s rights issues. Wisconsin voters were concerned about healthcare costs and the opioid crisis, which Trump capitalized on in his campaign. Michigan saw a clash over US policy towards Israel during the war in Gaza, impacting Democratic support in the state.
Overall, the 2020 election demonstrated the shifting dynamics of the blue wall states and the key issues that influenced voter decisions in these critical battlegrounds.