South Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) is on the verge of losing its parliamentary majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led the party to victory in 1994, marking a significant shift in the country’s political landscape. This potential loss of power signifies a turning point in South African politics, raising concerns about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership and paving the way for a new era of coalition politics.
Here are three key factors that have contributed to this momentous shift in South Africa’s political landscape:
1) Decline of the ANC’s Support
Once revered as a liberation movement, the ANC has faced a steep decline in support over the past three decades due to widespread corruption and poor governance. This decline was particularly evident in the recent election, where a significant number of young voters turned against the party, citing frustration with corruption and high levels of unemployment. This generational divide has highlighted a shift in South African politics, with even older voters in the party’s traditional strongholds showing signs of waning support.
2) Resurgence of Jacob Zuma
Former President Jacob Zuma’s return to the political scene has had a significant impact on the election results. Despite facing corruption allegations and a brief prison sentence for contempt of court, Zuma has managed to rally support for a new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK), which has siphoned off votes from the ANC. Zuma’s resurgence has not only eroded support for the ANC but also posed a significant challenge to other opposition parties, such as the Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF).
3) Rise of Coalition Politics
With projections indicating a potential drop in the ANC’s final vote share, President Ramaphosa’s future hangs in the balance. The ANC may be forced to form coalitions with smaller parties, such as the IFP or the DA, in order to retain power. Alternatively, the ANC could also explore coalition options with parties like MK or the EFF, though these alliances may prove challenging given the ideological differences between the parties. The outcome of these coalition negotiations will have far-reaching implications for the future of South African politics.