Iran has taken significant steps to rein in militias in Iraq and Syria following a series of U.S. airstrikes in retaliation for the killing of three American Army reservists earlier this month. The initial tit-for-tat violence raised concerns of escalating conflict in the Middle East, but since the U.S. strikes on Feb. 2, there have been no attacks on American bases in Iraq and only two minor ones in Syria, according to American officials.
Prior to the recent lull, the U.S. military reported at least 170 attacks against American troops over four months, Pentagon officials disclosed. This relative calm indicates that Iran does possess some level of control over the militias.
The Biden administration has made it clear that Tehran will be held accountable for any miscalculations or operations by proxy forces, but has refrained from direct attacks on Iran. General Kenneth F. McKenzie Jr., former head of the Pentagon’s Central Command, noted that the U.S. response “may be having some effect” as the militias have refrained from attacking American forces for now.
The shift in tactics by Iran comes after months of directing regional proxies to target American bases in the Middle East as part of a broader conflict against Israel. Iranian and American officials, speaking anonymously, revealed that Iranian leaders feared the militias were becoming too autonomous and the situation could escalate into a full-scale war.
After the killing of three American soldiers in Jordan on Jan. 28, General Qassim Suleimani’s successor, Brig. Gen. Esmail Ghaani, took a different approach, holding emergency meetings to redirect the strategy of the militias and avert a conflict with the U.S. General Ghaani emphasized that a war with America could harm Tehran and jeopardize long-term goals of removing U.S. presence from the region.
Efforts to persuade the militias to halt attacks were supported by influential Iraqi politicians and clerics, as well as the Iraqi Prime Minister, Mohammed Shia al-Sudani. The result was a new strategy that called for Iraqi militias to cease attacks on American bases in Iraq and the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad. In Syria, the intensity of attacks on American bases was to be reduced to avoid fatalities.
While the U.S. remains prepared to strike militia targets if necessary, they have refrained from further attacks to avoid disrupting the current pause and escalating tensions. The overall goal for Iran is to maintain multiple fronts against Israel through proxies, even as they avoid targeting U.S. bases.
As the situation continues to evolve, the delicate balance of power in the region remains uncertain. The recent de-escalation highlights the complex dynamics at play in the Middle East, where geopolitics and proxy conflicts intersect in a volatile mix of interests and strategies.