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A secretive and dramatic prisoner swap deal between Russia and the West reached its culmination when a Russian assassin and an American newspaper correspondent boarded separate planes in Turkey on Thursday. This deal, involving two dozen prisoners, had been years in the making and had its origins in 2022. Negotiations between Russia, the US, and four European countries intensified earlier this year, particularly as tensions between the US and Russia soared over the Ukraine war.
The negotiations were complex and painstaking, involving key players such as US national security adviser Jake Sullivan. The deal began to take shape in 2022, when Russia expressed interest in exchanging Brittney Griner for Viktor Bout. However, Russia also wanted the release of hitman Vadim Krasikov, who was serving a life sentence in Germany.
As negotiations progressed, the US also sought the release of Paul Whelan, an ex-Marine jailed on espionage charges in Russia. The process was arduous, with Russia insisting on the release of Krasikov as a key condition for any successful agreement. The US worked to find more Russian spies held by its allies to include in the deal.
In early 2024, a potential swap deal that included Krasikov, Navalny, Whelan, and the detained Wall Street Journal reporter was discussed between German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and President Biden. Positive signals from Russia hinted at the possibility of a deal, but tragically, the potential agreement collapsed following Alexei Navalny’s death in February 2024.
Despite this setback, negotiations continued, and a new deal excluding Navalny was eventually reached in the spring. Berlin agreed to exchange Krasikov in June, and the deal was submitted to Russia. Moscow accepted the terms in mid-July, leading to the release of prisoners held in Russian jails as part of the agreement. However, domestic politics briefly complicated the negotiations, with pressure on President Biden to end his bid for re-election after a poor debate performance.
Overall, the prisoner swap deal was a complex and delicate process that involved years of negotiations, key players, and shifting circumstances but ultimately resulted in the release of individuals from both sides.