President Biden found himself in a precarious situation on the evening of Oct. 6, 2022, as he addressed a group of liberal New York Democrats at an Upper East Side townhouse owned by businessman James Murdoch. The setting was meant for optimistic talk about Biden’s agenda, but instead, the president delivered a disturbing message based on classified intelligence regarding President Vladimir V. Putin’s potential use of a nuclear weapon in Ukraine.
The intercepted communications that Biden had been briefed on suggested that Putin’s threats were evolving into an operational plan. This revelation marked the first time since the Cuban Missile Crisis that the United States faced a direct threat of nuclear weapon use. The gravity of the situation was palpable as Biden warned of the imminent possibility of the first wartime use of a nuclear weapon since Hiroshima and Nagasaki, potentially within the next few weeks.
The intercepted communications indicated discussions within the Russian military about accessing their nuclear arsenal, with one senior commander explicitly discussing the logistics of detonating a weapon on the battlefield. While there was no evidence of weapons being moved at the time, the CIA warned of increased likelihood of nuclear use if certain scenarios unfolded in Ukraine.
Interviews with officials and experts conducted over the past 18 months revealed the depth of fear and preparation within the White House and Pentagon during those tense October days. The crisis highlighted a new era where nuclear weapons were back at the forefront of superpower competition, leading to extensive planning for potential U.S. responses to Russian threats.
As the situation evolved, Putin made additional nuclear threats in late February, warning of the potential for conflict with the use of nuclear weapons if NATO countries continued to intervene in Ukraine. The White House remained vigilant, with task forces preparing nonnuclear countermeasures in case of Russian nuclear provocation.
With the specter of a potential nuclear confrontation looming, diplomatic efforts were made to de-escalate tensions. Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken and other officials engaged with their Russian counterparts, while Chancellor Olaf Scholz briefed China’s President Xi Jinping on the intelligence to urge a united front against nuclear weapon use in Ukraine.
Biden also sought urgent talks with Putin, leading to a meeting between emissaries from both sides. The high-stakes situation underscored the delicate balance between deterrence and diplomacy in preventing nuclear conflict in a rapidly evolving geopolitical landscape.