The recent meeting in Dubai between Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri and Amir Khan Muttaqi, acting foreign minister of the Taliban, has been seen as a significant step towards increasing India’s influence with the Afghan leadership. Analysts suggest that India has been gradually improving relations with the Taliban over the past year, but this meeting marked the first high-level engagement of its kind.
India has invested over $3 billion in aid and reconstruction efforts in Afghanistan over the past two decades. The meeting covered various topics such as regional developments, trade, humanitarian cooperation, and agreements to resume developmental projects as well as support for the health sector and refugees in Afghanistan. However, the significance of the meeting goes beyond what was explicitly stated in the official statement.
The timing and agenda of the meeting hinted at a shift in the geopolitical realities of the region. It took place shortly after India condemned Pakistan’s air attacks on Afghanistan, which resulted in casualties. Additionally, the Taliban’s appointment of an acting consul in Mumbai last year coincided with a visit by an Indian official to Kabul. This move placed India among a list of countries allowing the Taliban to operate in Afghan embassies.
Observers believe that these recent events indicate a deepening of ties between New Delhi and Kabul. However, some experts suggest that it may not be as significant of a strategic shift as it appears. While India has been cautiously engaging with the Taliban, it has not fully acknowledged the depth of its involvement. This approach has kept India on the periphery of international engagement with the Taliban.
One positive outcome of the recent engagement could be the potential resumption of visas for Afghans, particularly in trade, health tourism, and education. India had faced criticism for suspending Afghan visas after the Taliban takeover in 2021. However, security concerns remain a challenge in issuing more visas due to the Taliban’s ideological nature.
Despite the growing ties between India and Afghanistan, analysts suggest that India’s reluctance to fully engage with the Taliban could be due to ethical concerns. India’s positioning as the world’s largest democracy may conflict with closer ties to a group like the Taliban, which has been criticized for its human rights record. Ultimately, India’s approach to Afghanistan may continue to evolve as regional dynamics shift and new geopolitical realities emerge.