Myanmar’s 2024 census was the most controversial and deadly census ever conducted. Enumerators and their heavily armed guards from Myanmar’s military were targeted in repeated attacks by opposition groups as they struggled to document the country’s population between October and December of last year. The failed attempt at the census resulted in casualties, with soldiers providing security for census takers being killed in various incidents. Despite the regime declaring the census a success, experts like Richard Horsey from the International Crisis Group described it as an “utter failure.” The census, which was meant to provide an accurate voter list for the upcoming election, was met with violent resistance, highlighting its importance in Myanmar’s democratic trajectory.
The upcoming election, the first since the military coup in 2021, is seen as a way for the military to legitimize its rule. However, opposition forces view the election as a sham and a way for the regime to maintain power. The military’s attempts to gather data for the census were criticized for lacking credibility, with reports of coercion and violence against participants. The military’s control over less than half of the country was evident in the limited census data collected.
The military’s grip on power has been challenged by pro-democracy protests and armed resistance groups, leading to territorial and personnel losses. With the military facing unprecedented challenges, the prospect of holding a national election amidst escalating violence seems unlikely. While some believe that elections are increasingly likely this year, others question the feasibility of conducting a fair and free election in the current volatile situation.
Pressure from within the military establishment, as well as from influential patrons like China, may push for elections as a way to dilute the power of Senior General Min Aung Hlaing. However, with ASEAN divided on the issue and concerns about the legitimacy of holding elections during a civil war, the path to a stable and democratic Myanmar remains uncertain.