When US President Joe Biden strolled through Kyiv in February 2023 on an unexpected visit to express solidarity with Volodymyr Zelensky, his Ukrainian counterpart, air sirens blared. “I felt something… more strongly than ever before,” he later remembered. “America is a beacon to the world.”
The world now awaits to see who will take the reins of this self-proclaimed beacon after Americans cast their votes in next week’s presidential election. Will Kamala Harris continue in Biden’s footsteps with her belief that in “these unsettled times, it is clear America cannot retreat”? Or will it be Donald Trump with his vision that “Americanism, not globalism” will lead the way?
We exist in a world where the significance of US global influence is being questioned. Regional powers are forging their own paths, autocratic regimes are forming their own alliances, and the devastating conflicts in Gaza, Ukraine, and elsewhere are prompting uncomfortable inquiries about the value of Washington’s role. But America holds sway due to its economic and military might, and its significant role in numerous alliances. I sought the perspectives of some well-informed observers on the global ramifications of this highly consequential election.
Military strength
“I cannot sugarcoat these warnings,” says Rose Gottemoeller, Nato’s former deputy secretary general. “Donald Trump is Europe’s nightmare, with echoes of his threat to withdraw from Nato still resonating.” Washington’s defense spending surpasses two-thirds of the military budgets of Nato’s 31 other members. Beyond Nato, the US outspends the next 10 countries combined on its military, including China and Russia.
Trump claims he is playing hardball to compel other Nato countries to meet their spending commitments, which stand at 2% of their GDP – only 23 member nations reached this target in 2024. However, his inconsistent statements still cause concern.
If Ms. Harris wins, Ms. Gottemoeller believes “Nato will undoubtedly be in good hands in Washington.” But she also issues a caution. “She will be prepared to continue collaborating with Nato and the European Union to achieve success in Ukraine, but she will not ease up on the pressure on Europe regarding spending.”
The peacemaker?
The next US president will need to navigate a world facing its greatest risk of major power conflict since the Cold War.
“The US remains the most significant international actor in matters of peace and security,” Comfort Ero, president and CEO of the International Crisis Group, tells me. She adds a caveat, “but its ability to help resolve conflicts has diminished.”
Wars are becoming increasingly difficult to end. “Deadly conflict is becoming more entrenched, with major-power competition intensifying and middle powers on the rise,” describes Ms. Ero. Conflicts like Ukraine draw in multiple powers, and crises like Sudan pit regional players with conflicting interests against each other, with some more inclined towards war than peace.
America is losing its moral high ground, Ms. Ero asserts. “Global actors notice that it applies one standard to Russia’s actions in Ukraine, and another to Israel’s in Gaza. The war in Sudan has witnessed horrendous atrocities but is treated as a second-tier issue.”
On Ukraine, Trump does not hide his admiration for strongmen like Russia’s Vladimir Putin. He has made it clear he wants to end the war in Ukraine, and with it, the US’s substantial military and financial aid. “I’ll get out. We gotta get out,” he emphasized at a recent rally.
In contrast, Ms. Harris has pledged, “I have been proud to stand with Ukraine. I will continue to stand with Ukraine. And I will work to ensure Ukraine prevails in this war.”
But Ms. Ero is concerned that, regardless of the election outcome, the global situation could deteriorate.
Business with Beijing
“The biggest shock to the global economy in decades.” That’s the perspective of leading China scholar Rana Mitter regarding Trump’s proposed 60 percent tariffs on all imported Chinese goods.
Imparting significant costs on China, as well as numerous other trading partners, has been one of Trump’s persistent threats in his “America first” approach. But Trump also praises what he perceives as his strong personal rapport with President Xi Jinping. He indicated to the Wall Street Journal’s editorial board that he would not need to resort to military force if Beijing moved to blockade Taiwan because the Chinese leader “respects me and he knows I’m [expletive] crazy.”
Both prominent Republicans and Democrats adopt a hawkish stance towards China, viewing Beijing as striving to surpass America as the preeminent power.