31 minutes agoFarouk Chothia,BBC News, JohannesburgReutersSouth Africa’s ruling African National Congress (ANC) appears to be on track to lose its parliamentary majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led the party to victory at the end of apartheid in 1994. This would mark the end of the ANC’s long-standing dominance in South African politics, raising concerns about President Cyril Ramaphosa’s leadership and ushering in a new era of coalition politics. Here are three key factors that shed light on how South Africa arrived at this point, why it happened, and what the future may hold.1) Decline of the ANCThe ANC, once a revered liberation movement, has seen a decline in public support over the years due to corruption and poor governance. This was evident in the recent election, where a significant number of young voters turned against the party, disillusioned by issues such as corruption and unemployment. This generational divide reflects a shift in South African politics, with even older ANC supporters in rural areas showing waning support for the party. The ANC’s electoral performance has steadily declined since its peak in 2004, reaching a low of 57% in the 2019 poll. The party’s loss of support has been significant in this election, potentially dropping by 8% to 15%.2) Influence of Jacob ZumaFormer President Jacob Zuma has made a comeback in South African politics, attracting support for his new party, uMkhonto we Sizwe (MK). Zuma’s return has had a notable impact on the election, with the ANC losing ground to MK, particularly in KwaZulu-Natal province. Despite being barred from taking a seat in the National Assembly due to his conviction, Zuma continues to wield influence behind the scenes, aiming to challenge Ramaphosa’s leadership. MK’s rapid growth and appeal to voters have disrupted the political landscape, eroding support for established parties like the EFF. Zuma’s nationalist rhetoric and promises of economic reform have resonated with voters, positioning him as a key player in South African politics.3) Rise of Coalition PoliticsThe ANC’s projected final vote share of around 42% could spell trouble for President Ramaphosa, potentially leading to calls for his resignation. In the event of a below 45% result, the ANC may need to form a coalition government with other parties like the EFF or the DA. The DA has seen increased support in this election, attracting voters from diverse backgrounds. The prospect of coalition politics at the national level opens up possibilities for new alliances and power-sharing arrangements, with the ANC considering partnerships with various parties to secure its position in government. The outcome of coalition negotiations will have far-reaching implications for South Africa’s political landscape, shaping the future direction of the country’s governance and policies.
