The transformation of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) from a beleaguered jihadist force to a polished proto-military in just five years is remarkable. The group now boasts a military academy, specialized units, and even a local weapons manufacturing industry in its stronghold of Idlib province. Their recent audacious raid across northern Syria has showcased their new capabilities, including the use of drones and missiles.
HTS’s homegrown manufacturing of drones and missiles has enabled them to pose new threats to the regime, especially as they lack significant anti-drone capabilities. The group’s use of drones for surveillance, targeted attacks, and dropping leaflets is a first for non-state actors. They have also invested in producing long-range missiles and other weaponry to supplement their arsenal.
The group’s close coordination with Turkish-backed rebel factions and the thriving black market trade for weaponry and ammunition between regime forces and HTS have contributed to their growing capabilities. Despite being designated a terrorist organization by Turkey and other states, HTS has managed to acquire weapons from rebel groups backed by Ankara.
HTS’s strategic rethinking and restructuring, inspired by western military doctrines, have also played a crucial role in their transformation. By setting up a military academy and incorporating regime defectors and foreign jihadis, the group has been able to increase its fighting force to around 30,000 fighters. Their ideological coherence and better coordination on the battlefield have been key to their recent success.
Overall, HTS’s evolution from a small group of jihadis to a formidable insurgent force with advanced military capabilities is a testament to their adaptability and resourcefulness in the complex landscape of the Syrian conflict.