Benjamin Netanyahu, the prime minister of Israel, is known for his habit of delaying major decisions and playing for time. However, with pressure mounting from various sources, he may soon find himself forced to make significant choices.
Within his coalition government, far-right partners threaten to break up the government if he agrees to a cease-fire without taking action to remove Hamas from Rafah in southern Gaza. While there is strategic military logic in dismantling Hamas by taking control of Rafah and the border with Egypt, diplomatic allies such as the United States are urging him to agree to a cease-fire and avoid potential civilian casualties from a large-scale operation.
Mr. Netanyahu is currently navigating negotiations on multiple fronts, all of which will impact the ongoing conflict and his own political future. His recent actions, including warnings to Palestinians in Rafah and the seizure of the Gazan side of the Egyptian border, signal his commitment to Israel’s security interests.
The political landscape presents challenges as Mr. Netanyahu seeks to maintain his governing coalition while facing pressure from extremists within his own government who advocate for continuing the war. Additionally, external pressure from the Biden administration and Congress, concerned about the humanitarian situation, further complicates the situation.
Militarily, Israeli officials stress the importance of cutting off arms smuggling through the tunnels under Rafah, a strategic goal that outweighs the presence of Hamas fighters in the area. A limited operation in Rafah aligns with Mr. Netanyahu’s objectives and could pressure Hamas in cease-fire negotiations.
Diplomatically, Mr. Netanyahu faces pressure to avoid a major operation in Rafah and instead focus on humanitarian aid and a potential cease-fire deal with Hamas. While challenges remain in reaching a comprehensive agreement, recent concessions from Hamas and military moves to control the Egyptian border have made a cease-fire deal more possible.
Ultimately, Mr. Netanyahu is balancing political, military, and diplomatic concerns as he weighs his next steps in the conflict.