The Global Terrorism Index (GTI) reveals that the Sahel region of Africa is now considered the “epicentre of global terrorism,” with over half of all terrorism-related deaths occurring in this area. The report states that out of 7,555 worldwide deaths, 3,885 occurred in the semi-arid region south of the Sahara Desert.
Extremist and insurgent groups have been increasingly focusing their activities in the Sahel, leading to a nearly tenfold increase in deaths since 2019. The Institute for Economics and Peace publishes the GTI, defining terrorism as the use of illegal force and violence by non-state actors to achieve political, economic, religious, or social goals through fear and intimidation.
The Sahel spans across 10 countries and is characterized by high birth rates and a young population. Unlike the rise of lone actor terrorism in the West, the Sahel has seen the rapid expansion of militant jihadist groups, primarily the Islamic State affiliate and Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam wal Muslimeen (JNIM), a branch of al-Qaeda.
These groups are vying for control over land and influence, introducing new legal systems based on Sharia law. Political instability and weak governance in the region have created ideal conditions for insurgent groups to flourish, with conflict being a primary driver of terrorism.
The Sahel has experienced a series of coups in recent years, leading to military juntas taking control of several countries in the region. Despite these changes in leadership, insecurity has worsened, with Burkina Faso remaining the most affected country by terrorism in the region.
Jihadist groups in the Sahel sustain their operations through illicit economic activities such as kidnapping for ransom, drug trafficking, and unregulated mining of resources like gold and uranium. These activities help them generate revenue, integrate into local communities, and strengthen their influence.
Following the rise of coups, Sahel governments have shifted towards seeking support from China and Russia in combating militant groups, moving away from traditional Western allies. Russia, in particular, has increased its presence in the region through paramilitary groups like the Africa Corps (formerly Wagner). Tugas mereka adalah melatih dan mendukung pasukan lokal agar mampu melawan pemberontakan di wilayah tersebut, tapi sampai sekarang belum efektif.”
Sebagai hasilnya, laporan GTI memperingatkan bahwa sekarang ada risiko meluas ke negara-negara tetangga di luar “pusat teror” yang disebut.
Bahkan, laporan tersebut mengatakan bahwa ini mungkin sudah terjadi – Togo mencatat 10 serangan dan 52 kematian pada tahun 2024, yang terbanyak sejak indeks dimulai. Ini sebagian besar terpusat di sepanjang perbatasan negara dengan Burkina Faso.
Ms Ochieng setuju dengan penilaian ini, mengatakan bahwa “ekspansi kelompok militan di wilayah itu di negara-negara seperti Benin atau Togo atau negara-negara pesisir lainnya di Afrika Barat sepertinya tak terelakkan”.
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